I underestimated him

More than once. A lesson in self-reckoning

I remember vividly when I realized unequivocally that Donald Trump had no chance of becoming president of the United States. It was March of 2016, four months before he would win the Republican nomination. It was becoming clear that he was a serious contender for the nomination, so the Washington Post editorial board sat down with Trump for a conversation and rather than writing about the conversation, they published a verbatim transcript.

I remember calling my father—who was sympathetic to Trump’s candidacy—and telling my dad that this man has no chance, zero, of being the nominee and if by some miracle he gets the nomination, he will never be elected president. My dad, who was a very wise man with immense common sense and knowledge of history and the world, explained that Trump “wasn’t a good talker,” meaning he wasn’t eloquent or articulate and that I should ignore what he says. His instincts are in the right place, my dad explained. And I responded, Dad, it has nothing to do with talking. He’s not normal.

I dug up that interview to write this piece; you can read it here. It makes for fascinating reading. So many of the peculiar verbal tics of a rambling Trump discourse are on vivid display—the stream of consciousness, the bragging, the sense of personal grievance at how the press treats him. We’re so used to them, it’s hard to remember what it was like to encounter them for the first time almost a decade ago.

And many of the policy themes that Trump focused since then are there, too—immigration, the Iran deal that Obama crafted, the failure of our allies to pay their share of NATO, fairness in trade. But they are surrounded by words that most adults might want to say but they have a filter that keeps them from saying them out loud.

Go back and read the transcript. He’s not a normal person.

I think I got that right—he wasn’t, and still isn’t, a normal person.

But wow, did I underestimate him. I don’t mean that I didn’t give him a chance to win the nomination and election. Yes, I was wrong about that and I have lots of company. And after his first term and his defeat in 2020 and after January 6th, I knew he wouldn’t run again and if he did, he had no chance of winning. I was wrong again. I didn’t appreciate his political genius. Somehow, this very rich man had his finger on the pulse of aggrieved working class Americans who didn’t feel America was their country any more. Trump knew how to play that grievance like a fiddle. And he got the aggrieved to feel heard. Not a small feat.

We get to 2024, and surely he is going to win after he survives the assassination attempt and after Biden’s horrific performance in the first debate. But the Democrats switch to Kamala, the media unites behind her, and she crushes Trump in the first debate and suddenly, it’s the Republican nominee who seems old. But somehow, he wins. Yes, she was a weak candidate, but she almost won. That Trump won is again a tribute to his understanding of the daily lives and challenges of many Americans.

So yes, I wildly underestimated Donald Trump as a politician. But that’s not what this piece is about.

What Trump has accomplished in the Middle East over the last two weeks is something I couldn’t have imagined and I don’t think many others could either. Even now, he’s being underestimated. And the same is true of another master politician, Bibi Netanyahu. What they have accomplished together is extraordinary. What they have accomplished could not have been scripted in advance in anyone’s wildest dreams or nightmares.

Both men are deeply flawed. Both men, like many politicians, are narcissists. Both hate losing. Both have trouble sticking with the truth. But you cannot overstate what they have achieved together. And just so you know, unlike so many people, I neither loathe nor love Trump and Netanyahu. I have written plenty that is deeply critical of both men. But this week, you have to appreciate what they have achieved.

I’m writing this on June 25th, the day after the ceasefire. And there’s already an immense chorus of negative feeling on social media from pro-Israel voices about this latest turn of events—there was supposed to be unconditional surrender, what about regime change, Iran still has 900 lbs of enriched uranium, the Iranian foreign minister has already vowed to restart the program, we’re back to square one, there are still hostages in Gaza.

All of that is true. And it totally misses the point. Those are the trees. Look at the forest. The last two weeks, what Trump has cleverly called the 12 Day War, will be talked about and written about for ages. But the military success is just the beginning. Trump and Netanyahu have re-made the Middle East. And they’re just getting started. You underestimate them at your peril.

Let’s start with military execution. For 12 days, Israel dominated Iranian airspace. They did not lose a single plane to Iranian attack or to pilot error or mechanical malfunction. The Israeli Air Force killed military leaders with precise targeted attacks often on a single unit in a large building. They took out military leaders and nuclear scientists in ways we probably will not learn about for a long time. Phone calls brought leaders of the Iranian air force to a meeting where they were all killed together. Somehow, nuclear scientists were killed by their cars exploding. By the end of the war, Khamenei was alleged to be in a bunker communicating only with pencil and paper, not knowing who to trust. He may not be alive.

Israel destroyed command centers, headquarters, and maybe just for the fun of it, the clock that was counting down to the planned destruction of the state of Israel in 2040. Israel bombed and damaged centrifuges and nuclear stores at Fordow, Natanz, and Istefan. They physically took in hand the backup copy of the nuclear archives. Israel had already destroyed the first copy in an earlier attack. The execution of these attacks was flawless and clearly reflected not just extraordinary advanced planning but a devastating penetration of Iranian leadership circles which must have been and remains deeply unnerving to the leadership that is still alive. Because of inside information, the removal of top military and scientific leadership was accomplished with very little civilian death.

Iran’s vaunted arsenal of ballistic missiles was steadily destroyed over the course of the 12 days. The number of launchers available dwindled steadily.

And what did Iran achieve in the 12 days of the war? They managed to launch 550 missiles and 1000 drones. Over 90% of those achieved nothing—they were shot down by Israeli missile defenses. Iran did manage to kill 28 civilians. They did hit a hospital, but thankfully, the day before, the manager emptied the ward that was destroyed. Iran accomplished nothing militarily. Not a single military target was hit. This wasn’t a victory. This was a beat-down for the ages that will be the stuff of many books.

There’s a joke about the Six Day War and it may be a true story—that the war isn’t studied at West Point because there’s nothing to learn. It was too miraculous. The 12 Day War seems like it might be more impressive. And the whole thing was made possible by a coordinated campaign of misdirection between Trump and Netanyahu that preceded the war that lulled Iran into a state of complacency and made the initial attacks a complete surprise.

And the final military achievement was the B-2 bombing of Iran’s three nuclear sites by members of the US Air Force. Despite all the commentators saying he was leading us into WWIII and there would be thousands of casualties if such a thing were to happen, Trump executed the equivalent of a gimme putt that wins the Masters after Israel and Netanyahu had done all the heavy lifting. That American mission was made relatively effortless by the Israeli destruction of Iran’s air defenses, but it too was no small feat of logistics and military precision.

Two days after that attack we’re hearing reports that the only thing that was accomplished over the 12 days was delaying Iran’s nuclear program by a few months. Please. Anyone who knows isn’t saying. Whatever let Israel execute the military successes of the last 12 days certainly lets Israel know where the enriched uranium is and how to keep an eye on it. Netanyahu has hinted at as much.

People are foolishly claiming that Trump couldn’t resist an easy W so he was happy to contribute at the very end. Maybe. But that gimme putt did more than put an exclamation mark on the conflict as I suggest below.

Trump’s announcing of a ceasefire ended the war with Iran KO’d and Israel triumphant. Was it too soon? Was it an incredible strategic gamble that was made without consulting either of the other two parties—did Trump simply announce it and expect that both Iran and Israel would be stuck going along with it? I don’t know. What I do know is that after 12 days of unprecedented success by Israel, Trump ended the possibility of mutual back-and-forth violence in the name of face-saving. It was a stroke of strategic genius. We’ll see if it holds.

The military achievements are dwarfed by the geopolitical impact. With a single flawless bombing mission, Trump has changed the world’s perception of the United States. Iran, China, and Russia all understand that at least under Trump, the US is willing to project military power beyond what were once the perceived parameters of “America First.”

Iran is neutered. For how long? No way of knowing, but regime change, while it did not happen, seems much more likely. That’s the long-term solution. But in the meanwhile, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have lost their patron. Some say October 7 was done to prevent Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. That is back on the table. There is now talk of Lebanon and Syria joining. Without Iran, you can imagine Gaza being rebuilt by the Saudis and the UAE (and who knows, maybe Qatar) without a role for Hamas.

Peace in the Middle East isn’t imminent. But it’s imaginable in a way that it wasn’t two weeks ago. If it comes it will be enforced by the military dominance of Israel and the muscle Israel brings with it now to any encounter—the guy who gave the green light to the B-2 bombers. It’s a new world for Trump to shape.

All of this, the military results and the geopolitical transformation, are beyond what could have been imagined two weeks ago when these two men had the guts to unleash Israel for a surprise attack against the head of the snake that has been tormenting Israel since October 7th and long before that. If Iran tries to return to tormenting the Zionist entity, it will have to answer not just to Israel but to Trump who has made this ceasefire and the day after, his own.

All of this is too rosey, by far. There are still theocratic thugs in Tehran, hatred of Jews in Gaza (but perhaps tempered by hatred now of Hamas), and there are still plenty of people who find their life’s meaning in Jihad. We have 50 hostages in Gaza and we will not rest until they are home. But it’s a much safer world than it was two weeks ago. And there is much potential for positive change down the road.

Two weeks ago, both men, Trump and Netanyahu, were seen as desperately uninterested in war with Iran. They proved their critics wrong. Both men took history by the neck and shook it.

How did they have the guts to do what they just did?

Two things, I think, made the last fortnight possible. The first is their personal rapport. Both men have been left for dead politically. They both came back to the surprise of the pundits. No one would bet against either of them now. The days of underestimating them are over. The similar arc they have both traveled probably creates a shared sympathy. They are both realists without stars in their eyes. They see the world in similar ways. It’s clear now that they have worked together for the last few months preparing what we have just seen.

But there’s something else, more evident in Trump than in Netanyahu. And that’s a willingness to be bold. Foolish people claim that Netanyahu dragged Trump into this war to satisfy a lifelong desire to get America to hit Iran. But that misreads the reality that Netanyahu couldn’t even drag himself into a war with Iran until now. I think October 7th and its aftermath changed him. Here in Israel, Netanyahu had been seen as excessively cautious. Those days are over.

But Trump’s boldness is otherworldly. Off the charts. What I mean by boldness is to do something that just isn’t done, that everyone knows isn’t done, that everyone is telling you can’t be done or shouldn’t be done. He floats bold schemes that are so outside the box the world takes them as humor. Canada could be the 51st state! Greenland would be nice to have! Let’s build a wall and get Mexico to pay for it!

These aren’t provocative or creative policy ideas. These are insane ideas. And until it happened a few days ago, so was the US bombing of Iran. But like his move of the American embassy to Jerusalem, Trump simply ignored everything around him that not only said it was a bad idea, it was impossible. That kind of thing just isn’t done. Everyone knows that. No one can imagine having a serious conversation around the merits of these kinds of ideas. Trump doesn’t care. Inconsistent with his whole campaign of America First? Trump doesn’t care. He’ll tell you it’s his phrase and he decides what it means.

Go back to November of 2024. A lot of Jews voted for Harris. A lot of Jews voted for Trump saying he would be better for Israel. But could those Trump voters imagine a Trump presidency that coordinated an attack on Iran with Israel that culminated with US pilots wielding the hammer that hit the last stroke on the nail that completed the 12 Day War? Can you imagine Secretary of State Blinken counseling President Biden or President Harris to do something as crazy as dropping bunker-busters on Fordow? I can’t. It’s so easy to say no, to say something is impossible. Then you don’t have to think about it any more. Trump doesn’t care. That is a superpower. It’s a dangerous superpower. He has done and will do some very bad things because of his boldness. But his handling of the Middle East so far is beyond creative and unexpected. I underestimated him.